Good morning if you are just joining the blog.
Andy Burnham was expected to win the Makerfield byelection, but he’s won big – by a huge margin. Here is Josh Halliday ’s story.
Here are the full figures from the count.
Today the attention will focus on what happens next.
Keir Starmer has posted a short message on social media congratulating Burnham, but it is very much a holding statement. (See 6.14am.) As Pippa Crerar reported in her comprehensive over-view 36 hours ago. Starmer has been wanting to fight to keep his job. But the scale of Burnham’s victory changes the balance of power between the two men,. the Burnham camp is now openly saying (albeit politely) that it wants Starmer to accept a timetable for a handover to the new Makerfield mayor. (See 2.05am.) The Home Office minister Mike Tapp was the main Labour voice making the counter. Starmer-loyalist argument in broadcast studios overnight. He claimed letting Burnham take over would trigger “credible calls for a general election” – which no Labour MP wants – ignoring the fact that, when Labour called for an election after Liz Truss replaced Boris Johnson,. after Rishi Sunak replaced Truss, the Conservative government found it very easy to take no notice of said “credible calls”.
The mainstream commentariat view seems to be that it’s when, not if, Starmer concedes,. agrees a timetable for his departure. (See 4.50am.) But the Burnham team have not said yet what handover date they want (Burnam probaby wants by Labour conference in September; Starmer would probably prefer by next summer). there is no confirmation yet that Starmer will comply. He has the right to insist on a formal leadership election, and this remains a possibility.
It was a bad night for Reform UK. (See 4.50am and 5.30pm.)
But the Conservatives had a very good result in Scotland. Severin Carrell has the story here.
Keir Starmer has said he “will stand” in a Labour leadership contest should one be triggered after Andy Burnham returns to Westminster. adding he will not “walk away”.
Boris Johnson. the former Tory PM, has said the Conservative victory in Aberdeen South is a “great omen” for his party.
double quotation mark Fantastic result for Conservatives in Aberdeen. Shows the advantage of campaigning with a clear economic message. A great omen.
We are expecting to hear from Keir Starmer later. According to GB News. he has left Downing Street for an event where he will be promoting government plans to reform the house buying process.
The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government has the details here. It says:
double quotation mark At a time when families are feeling the squeeze, new changes will cut homebuying times by around four weeks, save first-time buyers an average of £650,. stop the nasty surprises that cost time, money, and heartbreak. This will ensure the chance to own a home isn’t determined by who can afford to take the biggest risk.
Sellers and estate agents will have to provide key information upfront in ‘sales packs’ at the point of listing. This will set out a home’s condition, leasehold costs,. chain status so buyers can make informed decisions, and property professionals can get to work sooner – while creating a fairer, more transparent process for everyone involved.
Here are comments on the Makerfield result from two figures from the thinktank world.
From Theo Bertram, a former Labour adviser and head of the Social Market Foundation thinktank
double quotation mark For months, most of the Parliamentary Labour Party has accepted that Starmer won’t lead them in to the next election but there was disagreement on who should replace him, how,. when. The division held Starmer in place but those questions are now quickly being resolved.
From Steve Akehurst, who runs Persuasion UK, an organisation that studies the relationship between public opinion and policy
double quotation mark The first thing to say is a reminder that this should have been a comfortable Reform win. Labour over-performed what national polling says should have been the result by 30-odd points.
This is really very largely down to a unique connection voters in GM have with Burnham.
double quotation mark Burnham’s Makerfield coalition looks a lot like what Labour needs to win nationally.
He united progressives (retaining voters that Lab is losing nationally to left or apathy) and hoovered up Greens/Libs. Then plugged losses to Reform with soft 2024 Cons + Reform voters.
double quotation mark Btw: this soft Tory vote - Con 2024. open to voting Labour to stop Reform - is massively under-studied but could be vital in a lot of Lab vs Reform seats next time. Consistently about 8-10% of Con 24 vote.
double quotation mark What attracted voters to Burnham? Among voters overall, his strongest card was the chance to replace Starmer.
But among his coalition, strikingly, it was his *platform on taking back control of public essentials*.
Micheál Martin, the taoiseach (Irish PM) has congratulated Andy Burnham on his byelection victory, RTE’s Tony Connolly reports. Martin said:
double quotation mark I know Andy, I’ve met him on a number of occasions. He has taken a particular interest in Ireland,. he has come to see us on a number of occasions, particularly on the economy and in respect of his role as a mayor in Manchester.
Stephen Flynn. the SNP’s former leader at Westminster, said the SNP must “reflect” on the loss of his former Westminster seat, the Press Assocation reports. PA says:
double quotation mark Douglas Lumsden won the Aberdeen South seat in the early hours of Friday morning. thanks largely to a tactical vote, according to Tory sources, securing 14,308 votes.
Meanwhile, the SNP tally collapsed from 15,213 in the 2024 general election to 8,258 in Thursday’s contest.
Posting on X after the SNP conceded defeat in the contest. Flynn said: “A tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily.”
He added: “We lost Aberdeen South to the Tories in 2017, and we won it back two years later.
“I’ve no doubt that we can do so again. If we get things right.”
A senior party source also hit out at the SNP’s stance on oil. gas – a key issue in a city which has been dubbed as the oil and gas capital of Europe – suggesting voters do not understand the party’s energy policy or view it as “weak”.
Also posting on X, first minister John Swinney said he was “very disappointed” with the result.
“Very disappointed with the result in Aberdeen South, @theSNP vote remains strong but it is clear that tactical voting has had a real impact on the result,” he said, congratulating Lumsden. praising the efforts of SNP candidate Richard Thomson.
Speaking to journalists after the result, Thomson said the Tories had “thrown the kitchen sink” at the campaign.
“We like not to be out-campaigned,. on this occasion, I think, just the sheer amount of resources that we were up against made it difficult to get the result we’d hoped for,” he said.
The guilty plea of former SNP chief executive –. Nicola Sturgeon’s estranged husband – Peter Murrell did not “make a bit of difference” to the party’s fortunes in Thursday’s poll, he added.
The Green party says it will be “campaigning hard” to win the Greater Manchester mayoralty byelection. Commenting on the Makerfield byelection, a Green spokesperson said:
double quotation mark We welcome the defeat of Reform’s divisive and misogynist campaign, and congratulations to Andy Burnham.
Our candidate Sarah Wakefield ran a brilliant campaign highlighting the positive change the Green party brings to our communities. that we are an island of belonging, not strangers …
The Greens will be campaigning hard to win the byelection for the Greater Manchester mayoralty and, as we showed in the Gorton. Denton by-election and local elections in the area, it is going to be a clear Greens vs Reform race in this election.
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has said he is “disappointed” about the Makerfield byelection results –. he has urged some of his supporters who defected to Restore Britain to “think again”.
In a video statement about the result, he said:
double quotation mark What really happened here was. it was vote [Andy] Burnham, get [Keir] Starmer out which, of course, was our campaign message leading up to the locals on May 7, so we were slightly hoisted with our own petard.
As for the Reform vote share. well I thought we would get 18,000 votes … we got just shy of 16 [thousand], so I’m disappointed, no question about it.
Addressing Restore Britain voters, of whom he said a “couple of thousand” would usually have voted for Reform, he said:
double quotation mark What do you want? We are the challenge party to the left in this country and I would urge you to think again.
Restore Britain was set up by Rupert Lowe, who was elected as a Reform UK MP in 2024. who left the party after falling out with Farage. Restore Britain. which was only established earlier this year, is similar to Reform UK in that they are both rightwing, populist, anti-immigrant parties. But Restore Britain is more extreme,. it has benefited from the support of the X owner Elon Musk who has promoted it on his platform.
Here is Kiran Stacey ’s analysis of the situation Keir Starmer faces this morning.
And this is how it starts.
double quotation mark Speaking hours before polls closed in Makerfield. a Downing Street source acknowledged a rare moment of doubt about the prime minister’s future. “Keir will fight on,” the source said, repeating the message to which Keir Starmer has stuck for several weeks. “Although, that might depend on the size of the majority.”
Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, has issued a statement congratulating Andy Burnham on his victory. He says:
double quotation mark Huge congratulations to @AndyBurnhamGM on an astonishing victory in Makerfield, where Labour lost badly only weeks ago.
It gives us all hope that Labour can still win,. Andy’s campaign is proof that to do so we need to change.
Enormous thanks to everyone involved.
On Tuesday Streeting indicated that he is planning to launch his own leadership challenge next week. He has already been campaigning, making policy announcements and giving a big speech on his economic vision. He insists he has the 80 backers he needs to launch a formal challenge, but some MPs suspect his intention is to do a deal. accept a job in a Burnham administration.
In his statement this morning Streeting is not saying anything more about his potential challenge.
Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, one of the biggest unions backing Labour, said this morning that Keir Starmer should stand down. allow the party to have a leadership election. And it should be fought on policy, not personality, she said:
double quotation mark There is absolutely no doubt that over the last two years workers. the working class have fallen out of love with Labour. The win for Andy Burnham in Makerfield is a glimmer of hope. it must not be taken as a business as usual mandate.
It is clear that there now needs to be an orderly timetable for a leadership election. Keir Starmer must do the right thing and step down. The inevitable leadership election must be fought on real change and policies. Not personalities or better speeches.
This show how share of the vote changed in Makerfield between the general election and the byelection.
Steve Reed, the housing secretary, is on Sky News. Asked if he would be telling the PM to set out a timetable for his departure or to carry on with his job. Reed said he was focusing on getting on with his own job.
He also insisted that the byelection result was “a good news story for Labour”.
Richard Tice. the Reform UK deputy leader, has played down the significance of his party losing to Andy Burnham in Makerfield. In an interview on Today, he said that Burnham won because people were voting to get rid of “the most unpopular prime minister in living memory”. that some of the people voting for him were Reform voters, or at least Reform leaning.
Here is an explainer by Peter Walker on how long it might take Andy Burnham to become PM.
Steve Reed, the communities secretary, is the government voice in the broadcast studios this morning. He is one of the ministers most loyal to Keir Starmer,. he said he expected Andy Burnham to take some time off with his family. Then Burnham should concentrated on helping Labour win the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection, Reed suggested.
Asked what should happen next, he said:
double quotation mark First of all, I think Andy’s going to need a bit of family time because byelections are incredibly stressful. intense, but what will happen next is Andy is no longer the mayor of Greater Manchester, so there will be a byelection for that position.
We saw from the result in Makerfield this is going to be a straight Labour-Reform fight. We cannot risk the biggest regional politician in England going over to Reform because of all the division that they would want to sow across the north-west of England. all the damage that they will want to do.
Asked if he thought Burnham could deliver Labour’s agenda in government better than Starmer, Reed said:
double quotation mark There is no one person that can make the challenges of government easier. We’ve got to get the balance right between growing the economy and investing in our public services that were broken.
In an interview overnight. Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, also said she expected Burnham to “hopefully take a few days off”. But she said she did expect him to have a conversation with Starmer.
Harriet Harman, the former Labour deputy leader, has said that she thinks Labour MPs,. not party members, should choose the next leader.
The party’s rules say, if there is a contest, all members get a vote.
But Harman told the Today programme this morning that, with the party in power, MPs should take the decision. She said:
double quotation mark The way you get to be prime minister,. the way you govern the country, is by having the support of the majority of party in parliament. So whoever’s prime minister has to have the support of Labour MPs.
And I think what should happen is that the three contenders – which is obviously Keir Starmer, who’s the prime minister, Andy Burnham, who’s the challenger,. Wes Streeting, who’s also a challenger – should be got in a room by the deputy leader of the Labour Party, Lucy Powell, and the chair of the parliamentary Labour party, Jess Morden, to agree a process whereby the Labour MPs choose who they they want.
Harman said she would also like to see a woman in the contest.
Asked why members should be excluded from voting. Harman said that while it was right to involve them when the party was in opposition, it should be different when the party is in government because “you can’t govern without the support of Labour MPs”.
Asked if she thought Burnham would end up as PM, she said that she did not want to speculate,. that she did think there should be a process.
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