Top economists at ANZ, Commonwealth Bank. NAB are now predicting interest rates will not rise any higher this year and will start to fall from the middle of next year.
ANZ today changed its rate call to predict two cash rate cuts in 2027. It had previously expected rates to remain steady for the foreseeable future.
HSBC’s Paul Bloxham also has now changed and expects no change until cuts in late 2027. Bloxham said:
double quotation mark Inflation is still too high and is set to rise further before it falls. That being said. the RBA has already taken significant action to deal with this surge in inflation – and, critically, the action is working … We expect the RBA to be on hold in June. Although there is some risk the RBA might choose to hike again beyond that. we expect the weakening in growth to convince them to be on hold.
Commonwealth Bank has not changed its prediction that the RBA will stay on hold before cutting twice in mid-2027. NAB expects a similar trajectory.
But financial markets are still betting a hike is more likely than not over the next 12 months. Westpac today reaffirmed its view that the cash rate will rise in August. September this year, with no cuts until 2028. Its chief economist, Luci Ellis, today predicted inflation would peak at 4.7% late this year, lower than she previously expected. still higher than the RBA now expects it to be.
Biggest coalmine expansion in NSW referred to Independent Planning Commission for decision
The largest coalmine expansion proposed in New South Wales has been referred to the state’s Independent Planning Commission (IPC) for a decision.
Yancoal and Glencore are seeking approval for the Hunter Valley Operations (HVO) Continuation project near Singleton in the Hunter Valley. The project would extend open cut-mining at the site by 19 years to 2045. mine an additional 430 million tonnes of coal.
The state government referred the project on Friday afternoon. which starts an 84-day process that will include public hearings before the commission reaches a decision.
Lock the Gate Alliance Acting National Coordinator Georgina Woods said:
double quotation mark Expanding Hunter Valley Operations mine will worsen air pollution. water stress locally in the Hunter, but the impact of worsening global warming from its 800 million tonnes of greenhouse pollution will be felt by communities across New South Wales.”
She said the group was expecting people from the Hunter. other regional areas would tell the commission about their experiences of climate change.
double quotation mark For too long these voices have not been heard. the costs of climate change on households have not [been] weighed up in planning decisions about coal mines.”
Conroy defends Aukus future
The defence industry minister. Pat Conroy, has rejected claims that the shock resignation of British defence secretary John Healey poses any threat to the Aukus pact, labelling domestic concerns as “tall poppy syndrome or cultural cringe here where we think everything’s about Australia”.
Speaking on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing, Conroy dismissed suggestions that the UK’s internal funding crisis could derail the nuclear submarine deal.
double quotation mark In the UK system, the funding for the nuclear systems, the nuclear deterrent. the nuclear attack submarines, is ringfenced from the rest of the defence budget. This has got nothing to do with Australia.
Thanks, everyone, for spending the afternoon with me!
I am going to hand you over to my colleague Ima Caldwell, who will take you through the evening.
Weather fronts to bring rain, gusty winds to southern states, showers to southwest WA
A front will bring rain, showers. gusty winds to South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW this weekend, while a second front brings showers to far southwest Western Australia.
An unstable air mass will maintain showers. storms over northwest and central WA, while onshore winds bring showers to eastern Queensland.
On Saturday, Brisbane will hit 24C, Darwin will hit 33C, Perth will see a high of 18C, Adelaide will experience 19C, Melbourne a high of 17C, Hobart 18C, Canberra 17C. Sydney 22C.
ABC managing director Hugh Marks says it would be hypocritical not to talk to journalists who work for Rupert Murdoch.
In an interview with Ben Fordham on 2GB Marks said he couldn’t comment on why other managing directors didn’t come on the commercial radio station,. he believed in transparency.
double quotation mark Did you know. a lot of ABC staff members were angry the first time they read quotes from Hugh Marks in the Australian?
double quotation mark Well. I’d be hypocritical, wouldn’t I, if I didn’t talk to everybody in the industry on the same basis that we expect everybody in politics to talk to us at the ABC.
So being transparent, being out. about and … Talking to everybody and putting yourself in an environment where you are and you do have to justify the decisions you make I think is important.
Since December Marks has granted the Murdoch broadsheet three exclusive interviews.
The former CEO of Nine Entertainment. independent producer said it was “not an easy decision” to take on the job of managing director of the ABC because he “had a nice life”, but he believes in a strong public broadcaster.
double quotation mark So it was a difficult decision to do, but it’s important. I think a strong public broadcaster is important. as a public broadcasters we have to accept that the taxpayer is our owner through the parliament of Australia.
More Australians travelling to Indonesia; New Zealand and Japan still popular, ABS statistics show
Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows the number of short-term trips to Indonesia rose 16% over the year to April.
The monthly arrivals. departures data show the three leading destination countries for Australian residents on short-term trips in April were: - Indonesia (161,700 trips) - New Zealand (135,190) - Japan (108,540)
The highest number of resident returns from short-term trips was for New South Wales (354,140). while the Northern Territory recorded the fewest (8,520).
Court approves class-action style lawsuit against Queensland puberty blocker ban
The Queensland civil. administrative tribunal has approved a class-action style anti-discrimination lawsuit against the state’s ban on gender affirming care.
Transgender children are banned from accessing puberty blockers or hormone therapy in Queensland public hospitals. Both drugs are still available for cisgender children.
The state unlawfully imposed the ban in January 2025. That order was thrown out by the supreme court in October, before being reimposed the same day.
In December, health minister Tim Nicholls announced the ban would be continued until 2031.
The LGBTQI legal service said Qcat had allowed another lawsuit against the ban to proceed as a representative action. akin to a class action. They will represent all young Queenslanders diagnosed with gender dysphoria who had yet to commence puberty blockers or hormone treatment at the time of the original order.
It also ordered that Queensland Health Minister Tim Nicholls be joined as a respondent to the proceeding.
LGBTI legal service senior solicitor Emma Bastable said “every young person who meets the class definition is automatically included unless they choose to opt out by a date. will be set by the tribunal”.
“This case is not limited to young people who were already on a treatment pathway. with the Tribunal finding that being denied the opportunity to be considered for treatment is enough,” Bastable said.
double quotation mark The Tribunal has recognised that exclusion itself can cause harm. even before a young person reaches the point of treatment.
That’s all from me. Cait Kelly will take things from here. Enjoy your weekend!
A fundraiser for One Nation scheduled for tonight in Melbourne has been cancelled after the venue decided not to hold the event. according to Victoria police. The event was set to be held at Giorgio Casa, a bistro in Moonee Ponds.
A spokesperson for One Nation told Guardian Australia the event will go ahead at another location tonight,. did not specify where. The spokesperson said police “did express concern about protest activity at the event”. They added the event was “sold out”, but wouldn’t put a number on how many people were expected to attend.
A spokesperson for Victoria police said officers were not aware of any threats made against the event.
“The decision not to hold the event was made by the venue,” the spokesperson said.
A number of groups were planning to protest against the event, saying Victorians needed to “stand up. fight back” and “drive Hanson out of Melbourne”.
Top economists at ANZ, Commonwealth Bank. NAB are now predicting interest rates will not rise any higher this year and will start to fall from the middle of next year.
ANZ today changed its rate call to predict two cash rate cuts in 2027. It had previously expected rates to remain steady for the foreseeable future.
HSBC’s Paul Bloxham also has now changed and expects no change until cuts in late 2027. Bloxham said:
double quotation mark Inflation is still too high and is set to rise further before it falls. That being said. the RBA has already taken significant action to deal with this surge in inflation – and, critically, the action is working … We expect the RBA to be on hold in June. Although there is some risk the RBA might choose to hike again beyond that. we expect the weakening in growth to convince them to be on hold.
Commonwealth Bank has not changed its prediction that the RBA will stay on hold before cutting twice in mid-2027. NAB expects a similar trajectory.
But financial markets are still betting a hike is more likely than not over the next 12 months. Westpac today reaffirmed its view that the cash rate will rise in August. September this year, with no cuts until 2028. Its chief economist, Luci Ellis, today predicted inflation would peak at 4.7% late this year, lower than she previously expected. still higher than the RBA now expects it to be.
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