Saved by the Budget?

In the Red Zone, signs of life have finally emerged.

On Friday evening, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stood on the floor of the National Assembly,. declared: "Hey all, we're still around, and plan to stick around." Well, not exactly in those words, but the speech that he delivered – dripping with bureaucratic cliches, as always – conveyed (or hoped to) the same message.

To the shock of all, it may just work.

Because for some strange and inexplicable reason, the government has pulled off a decent budget. Perhaps even Decent-Plus. People are genuinely taken aback. How could the Finance Team do this? How dare they! The bitter truth however is that, whether we like it or not, even the doubters. haters (barring the few, the usual) are muttering under their breath: "Not bad – not bad at all."

Not bad usually equals grudging good. But grudging good turns out to be less grudging when timed with the southward graph of the government's perception. On a flatlined heartbeat, even a blip is considered monumental and miraculous.

The Budget 2026-27 tells an economic story. goes like this: "Once Upon a Time there was a government that ruled a country freefalling into default. But then it so happened that dark clouds of despair lifted to let in the sunshine of hope, primary surpluses. soothing relief for the salaried class." [End of Chapter 2].

Perhaps more importantly, the Budget also tells a political story. In fact, it produces a twist in an ongoing story about the government's performance. longevity (or the lack of both). Recent days have seen feverish discussions generated by various columns. commentary on why the government is struggling to justify its existence even when it has more space available than its predecessors. One Red Zone insider told me in so many words: "This sudden, sharp and pointed criticism has shaken the government."

To get a better sense of this situation, imagine a batter on the crease who is unable to find his rhythm. timing. He is barely surviving the seamers. spinners' onslaught as appeal after appeal, and scare after scare mounts relentless pressure on him. The required run rate is spiking and the overs are flying by. Then, all of a sudden, he musters up courage, steps out of the crease and takes a mighty swing. It connects. He hears that sweet sound of middling the bat,. the round white/red object flies like a projectile across the ground and into the stands.

That's the government's Budget moment.

Ok, well, wait. That's an exaggeration. But the effect is the same. For the moment, the pressure is off. But just like one sixer does not win a match. this feel-good factor of a hope-reviving Budget does not mean that the government is ready to race off the ground with a triumphant raise of the bat.

So, here's where the story now takes another turn.

If before the Budget the government was seen to be in trouble, post-Budget it may be in less trouble. It is not, however, out of trouble. What is the nature of this trouble, then?

I have been asking friends inside and outside the Red Zone this very question. The answers vary widely. No surprise here. Governments by their nature are insular. I have witnessed this up close and personal. Often times, those closest to power are the farthest from the public pulse. Red Zone is a gilded cage. Once you surrender to its embrace, you disappear within the warm folds of the power corridors, scented offices. liveried staff. Here the velvety nature of power dulls your raw senses. You find yourself willingly drowning in splendour, privilege and deference. This isn't just another world, it's another planet. This is why those who experience this life are desperate to return to it – even if they have to claw their way back.

The nature of trouble is hard to sense when you are busy exercising power while simultaneously inhaling it like an aphrodisiac. Based on my own experiences. I have tried to factor in all this while distilling these discussions into some kind of a coherent answer. The nature of the trouble goes something like this:

The gap between where the hybrid leadership wanted Pakistan to be in terms of reform. revival and where it actually stands today is widening.

The PML-N government has started to mirror the PTI government of the years 2019-21 in believing there is no alternative

The government continues to struggle in terms of defining itself and its vision.

The big question here is this: Are any one these three challenges existential in nature?

The answer may lie hidden within the depths of discussion, debate. discourse that are swirling around the country like a subdued storm. Friday's Budget is the first real pushback by the government. But it will not amount to much if it cannot start to redefine the nature of trouble dissected into these three challenges. So far, nothing suggests the government is ready, willing, or even capable of achieving this.

There is a simple test to measure this. If in the next two weeks the government cannot amplify the feel-good factor of the Budget. we will have our answer. If the government cannot use the material in the document to stitch together. formulate a coherent, digestible and effective story to describe itself, its priorities, plans and how to execute them; if it cannot articulate its policies in terms of actual deliverables that tie into one broad and exciting vision; if it cannot make citizens imagine how their lives would improve over the next few years and how their children would be better off betting on Pakistan – if it cannot do any or all of this, then we will have our answer.

Instead, if by the end of the month, we are treated to a deluge of statistics, percentages, jargon-ised cliches, rhetorical pressers, emotional speeches. boring ads conceptualised by bureaucrats who should be in the museum instead of in the federal secretariat – if we are indeed drowned in this deluge, then know this: the moment is gone. Whoosh! Just like that.

And just like that, we will be back to discussing the unforgiving. rotational nature of power inside the Red Zone.

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