What could happen next in Labour leadership challenge?

With Andy Burnham offered a path back to parliament. the chances of a Labour leadership challenge to Keir Starmer appear to have increased dramatically.

Manchester’s mayor said he wanted to return to Westminster to “make politics work properly for people” after Josh Simons. the Labour MP for Makerfield, said he would stand down so Burnham could run in the seat in north-west England.

Here we take a look at what might happen next.

In order for the byelection to take place a process must first be followed in the House of Commons. By convention, the Labour chief whip will start the process by formally asking parliament to start the election process. This is called moving the writ.

Once the writ is moved, the byelection must take place between 21. 27 working days later, with byelections usually held on a Thursday.

This means that if a writ is issued in the coming days. we could see the byelection as early as Thursday 18 June or 25 June.

Labour’s majority in Makerfield in 2024 was just 5,399. Reform UK won all the constituency’s wards in last week’s local elections.

Just before Labour’s 7 May local elections disaster. a Compass survey of more than 1,000 Labour members found that given a free choice, 42% would pick Burnham to succeed Starmer, with just 11% opting for the former health secretary Wes Streeting.

But Burnham also still requires permission from Labour’s ruling national executive committee to contest the byelection. The NEC blocked him when he tried to stand in the Gorton. Denton byelection, which Labour went on to lose to the Greens.

At least one MP needs the backing of 20% of the Labour party’s MPs – 81 at the moment – to challenge the prime minister.

After a leadership hopeful nails down 81 backers in the Commons. candidates are then put for a vote to party members, who rank them in order of preference.

A contender is declared the winner if they get more than 50% of first preferences,. this usually happens through a process of elimination during rounds of voting, the timetable for which is set by the NEC.

Party members and affiliated trade union supporters are able to vote and they rank candidates in order of preference.

If a candidate secures over 50% of the first-preference votes, they are declared the winner. will become the new leader of the party. If Starmer runs and wins he will remain in his job.

Failing that, the candidate who places last is eliminated,. the voters who put them as their first choice will have their votes moved to their second-choice candidate.

The process continues until one candidate secures more than 50% of the votes cast.

Nothing is particularly clear but names suggested as runners include Streeting, the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, the energy secretary, Ed Miliband,. the defence minister, Al Carns.

However, as of Friday morning no one has formally confirmed they would run in a leadership challenge.

The process favours any candidate who has support from a coalition across the party movement. rather than one particular faction – which out of the current purported contenders would be for Burnham.

Commenters agree that the soft left of the party (Burnham would fall into this rough category, as would Rayner. Miliband) could get more than 80 MPs as long as they coalesce around one candidate and do not split the vote.

If Burnham stands, there is also a scenario where nobody challenges him, as according to various polls such as the Compass survey, he is the clear favourite. could do deals with others such as Streeting, the most likely to challenge him.

If he did not step down, Starmer would automatically be on the ballot paper in any race,. Downing Street has continued to insist that he would fight any effort to oust him.

If Starmer chose to resign, he could either remain temporarily during a transition period or step down immediately.

If he resigned with immediate effect. a senior cabinet member would replace him in a caretaker role until Labour elected a new leader.

When a Labour leader resigns, the rules around the leadership contest would become more complicated. create a more drawn-out process. Leadership candidates are expected to also gather the support of 5% of either constituency Labour parties (CLPs) or affiliated trade unions in order to reach the ballot.

The winner of the Labour leadership contest would automatically become prime minister without a general election. provided they maintained the confidence of the House of Commons with majority support.