Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes – UK politics live

Burnham said the vote against Labour at the local elections was “a loud cry for change”. He went on:

double quotation mark We have begun to answer that to that.

But I do say to my own party - this is a final chance to change.

This is what people said directly to me on the hundreds of doorsteps that I stood on.

We must hear it. We must act upon it, and we must get it right.

There will be no second chance, but it is a chance now, from this result tonight, to build a new politics based on unity. hope, turning away from the path that takes us to a divided, politics of the kind we’ve seen in the United States. We must now take this path. put this country back on the right path, and bring people back together and get things working properly again.

Andy Burnham did not take any questions from reporters as he was leaving the count venue,. he did say he was going for a pint, Iram Ramzan from the Manchester Evening News reports.

The Conservative party has isssued this statement about the result. A spokesperson said:

double quotation mark has long been considered a safe Labour seat. The fact that it was even at risk shows just how unpopular Labour has become.

But there is no disguising the fact that this is a disastrous result for Reform. was one of their top target seats anywhere in the country. yet despite throwing everything at it, they have failed to win.

Andy Burnham’s victory will now trigger a Labour leadership contest. during which the Government will be consumed by Labour’s internal politics rather than governing.

Here is a round-up of what some journalists and commentators are saying about Andy Burnham’s win.

From my colleague Jessica Elgot

double quotation mark It now seems beyond any doubt that Burnham will be prime minister. Labour MPs will look at that result - the consolidation of the progressive vote, the swathes of ex-Reform voters returning to Labour -. they won’t be able to wait long.

double quotation mark One (very knowledgeable!) Labour MP told me a week after the campaign launch. they were confident @AndyBurnhamGM would get more than @joshsimonsmp majority. I always kept it in the back of my mind. It was actually almost double.

From Patrick Maguire from the Times

double quotation mark Andy Burnham is going to be prime minister and he is going to be prime minister soon. He is now the only electoral show in town for the Labour Party. The only question now is how quickly others arrive on this plane of reality.

From Emily Maitlis from the News Agents podcast

double quotation mark : Burnham has increased his party’s share of the vote astonishingly - with the help of tactical voting from Lib Dem’s, Greens. very possibly Tories too.

double quotation mark Before this result - one current cabinet member told me that they would simply not allow “ a Burnham coronation “. would feel the need to throw their hat into the ring if it were headed that way. I wonder if that still stands with the scale of this result? #

From Ben Ansell, a politics professor

double quotation mark Increasingly likely we won’t see PM Nigel Farage. That was a poor result for Reform in . And a Tory win in Aberdeen South on top.

From Luke Tryl, the More in Common pollster

double quotation mark Nearly a 10,000 majority that’s a seismic result for Labour, if the proof of concept was winning on hostile turf Burnham has done it, uniting the left vote. holding Reform to under 3 pts higher than at the General Election.

double quotation mark Think this is unarguably Reform’s worst night since General Election.

1) Barely any increase in their vote share in . 20pt Labour win in a seat that was one of their best second places in 2024.

2) Tories show proof of life and even momentum in battle for the right with Aberdeen South win

3) Restore Britain take 7%, replicated elsewhere in fragmented politics Reform’s path to govt becomes very very hard.

From the New Statesman’s Ben Walker

double quotation mark No poll had Burnham doing as well as this or Reform as worse. Off the charts.

From ITV’s Paul Brand

double quotation mark Aside from the specific circumstances of . Andy Burnham’s personal profile, a pattern is emerging in recent by-elections… Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton, … the tactical vote to keep Reform ‘out’ is being mobilised with significant impact. Tactical voting is cemented as a defining feature of our politics.

From Adam Payne from PoliticsHome

double quotation mark That’s just a staggering result for Burnham. He hasn’t just ‘taken on’ Reform, he’s smashed them, uniting the progressive vote behind him. Remove the Restore Britain % and it still wouldn’t have been close. In terms of his electoral pitch to Labour MPs, nobody else comes close.

In its initial assessment of Andy Burnham’s victory on the BBC. Prof Sir John Curtice, the corporation’s lead elections analyst, said that, although Burnham won handsomely, that did not necessarily mean he would be able to achieve a “dramatic” change in Labour’s standing in the polls.

double quotation mark Can this be replicated elsewhere? First thing to note, between them the Conservatives, the Greens. the Liberal Democrats got no more than 3% of the vote.

I think one has to say that there are two crucial elements to Mr Burnham’s success. The first is the apparent readiness of those who are minded to vote for parties other than Reform, or indeed Restore Britain, their readiness to fall in. vote for Mr Burnham.

The second element of Mr Burnham’s success is that in a sense he was riding two horses at once. He was both riding as the person who was trying to appeal to the traditional Labour vote …. he was also able to appeal to those who wanted to see the back of Keir Starmer.

The question you have to ask yourself is when Mr Burnham becomes prime minister. how easy will that trick be to repeat? Because once he’s his own man. he’s not going to be able to campaign against himself in the way he’s campaigned against Keir Starmer.

Bear in mind the fact that because he is so popular within Manchester. the extent to which his popularity can be extended across the whole of the country. All of this is for Mr Burnham to prove – it looks as if he will get the opportunity to prove it. I don’t think we should assume that there is going to be suddenly a dramatic change in the standing of the Labour party in the national opinion polls.

Curtice also said he thought the Lib Dem share of the vote. at 0.4%, was the party’s lowest ever in a byelection.

Andy Burnham’s victory speech – a concise summary of themes he has set out before, encapsulated in the idea that under his leadership government policy would in future be determined by the “ test” (see 3.20pm ) – was quite powerful, for anyone still up to watch it,. tonight what matters are the numbers, not the words.

Earlier this week the Spectator was speculating whether Burnham’s lead over Reform UK would be in the low single digits or the high single digits. (See 10.02pm.) There was much talk of whether. if he did win, his support would outnumber the combined Reform UK/Restore Britain vote.

It turns out Burnham is 20 points up – or 13 points up if you wrap in the Rupert Lowe fans with the Nigel Farage fans. He achieved a swing away from Reform to Labour. In the current context, and in the light of what happened in the local elections, that is remarkable. Labour in particular,. progressive politics more widely, has been desperately searching for a Farage repellant for at least a year. Now they have found one.

We heard what’s coming next, because Louise Haigh helpfully set it out on the BBC; Starmer will be asked to agree an “orderly. managed” handover. (See 2.05pm.) Any negotiation ultimately depends on who has the power,. who doesn’t, and, in Labour politics, Burnham now looks unstoppable.

Robert Kenyon, the Reform UK candidate who came second, did not give a speech at the count.

Here are the results in full from the Press Association.

Andy Burnham (Lab) 24,937 (54.82%, +9.62%)

Rob Kenyon (Reform) 15,696 (34.51%, +2.71%)

Rebecca Shepherd (Restore) 3,111 (6.84%)

Michael Winstanley (C) 997 (2.19%, -8.68%)

Sarah Wakefield (Green) 308 (0.68%, -3.73%)

Jake Austin (LD) 163 (0.36%, -6.43%)

Count Binface (Binface) 95 (0.21%)

Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 45 (0.10%)

John Dyer (Ind) 37 (0.08%)

Peter Ward (Rejoin) 35 (0.08%)

Dan Clarke (Libertarian) 18 (0.04%)

Ed Gemmell (Climate) 18 (0.04%)

Robert Pownall (Ind) 18 (0.04%)

Paul Gould (Ind) 8 (0.02%)

Lab maj 9,241 (20.32%)

3.45% swing Reform to Lab

Electorate 77,478; Turnout 45,486 (58.71%, +6.31%)

Burnham said there were many places in the country like , where people feel neglected. as if the system does not work for them.

double quotation mark And that changes tonight. This result changes that. This result will bring about a country that works fairly for everywhere and for everybody.

People here have voted for change. They voted for more power for the north and everywhere forgotten by Westminster. They have voted for hope.

Now let’s give that back to them.

Burnham said it would be a “wrench” to give up his job as mayor of Greater Manchester.

double quotation mark But I am not leaving the service of Greater Manchester.

I’ve always been clear that it can’t achieve everything it should be,. we can’t close the North-South divide, and we can’t make all the great English cities be what they should be, without big change at the national level.

I always knew one day I would seek to go back to Westminster to complete that unfinished business, so that . Greater Manchester and the north of England can fulfil their potential.

Burnham said the vote against Labour at the local elections was “a loud cry for change”. He went on:

double quotation mark We have begun to answer that to that.

But I do say to my own party - this is a final chance to change.

This is what people said directly to me on the hundreds of doorsteps that I stood on.

We must hear it. We must act upon it, and we must get it right.

There will be no second chance, but it is a chance now, from this result tonight, to build a new politics based on unity. hope, turning away from the path that takes us to a divided, politics of the kind we’ve seen in the United States. We must now take this path. put this country back on the right path, and bring people back together and get things working properly again.

Burnham said he would be an MP for all people in the constituency. He said:

double quotation mark As your member of Parliament, I know people who traditionally vote for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens. perhaps more recently in May for Reform UK have given me their support in this election.

I will always have respect to them … out of respect for them. I will always take a place first rather than a party first approach.

And I will focus on problem solving rather than point scoring.

And I will work hard after this by election to heal the divisions of this campaign. let it be really understood that I will be your MP however you voted.

Burnham says he is proud people have seen the best of the constituency.

double quotation mark I am proud that this place has shone in the world’s spotlight these last five weeks,. the warm humour and hospitality of its people has been on show for all to see.

And he addresses the claim he is just using the constituency as a stepping stone.

double quotation mark It will never be a stepping stone to me, but instead will be my touch stone.

And he says he wants to put the “ test” at the heart of British politics. to places neglected by Westminster get their say.

By test, he means that if a policy will not benefit ,. places like it, it should not happen.

Burnham is speaking now.

double quotation mark Everyone knows that politics isn’t working. Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be.

Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.

From here on. I will give everything I have got to make it so, to ensure the name, is forever synonymous with bringing about the change this country needs, bringing back something we’ve lost, hope. A hope for the future.

At the count Andy Burnham was about to make his victory speech,. he was interrupted by someone making some sort of complaint about him, relating to a nuclear power plant, I think.

Here is more detail on the figures.

Labour won 54% of the vote to Reform UK’s 35%, while Restore Britain secured 7%. Turnout was 58.75% – six points up on the general election, with 45,510 votes cast.

**Author: Makerfield**