Andy Burnham will push to become PM before Labour conference, allies say

Andy Burnham will push to become prime minister in time to address Labour’s autumn party conference in Liverpool. his supporters have said.

The Greater Manchester mayor cleared his first hurdle to becoming the candidate in the Makerfield byelection on Friday when Labour’s ruling body gave him permission to stand for the seat.

If confirmed as Labour’s choice. he will need to win a difficult contest for the Greater Manchester seat in mid to late June. Support for Reform UK surged in the area at the local elections.

With the byelection most likely to take place on 18 June, some of Burnham’s supporters believe he has a path to becoming prime minister before parliament breaks for the summer recess,. sources close his campaign believe his preference is for a longer timeline.

His prize for winning a leadership contest in the summer would be a victorious homecoming. what one supporter described as a “natural moment” for a transfer of power in Manchester.

Another source close to Burnham said he did not want to get ahead of himself. was concentrating on the byelection ahead.

His route back to parliament was opened up by the resignation of his ally Josh Simons on Thursday after other contenders to replace Keir Starmer backed away from triggering a contest against the prime minister this week.

Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, who will be the political lead for the party in the byelection, told the Guardian she expected it “to really galvanise people from right across the party. we’ll absolutely be throwing everything at it”.

“Should he be our candidate. Andy’s story, Andy’s narrative, Andy’s connection to the place will absolutely be at the forefront of it all,” she said. “He is very much what keeps a seat like that in play for us.”

She described the byelection as a “straight fight between us. Reform and exactly the sort of seat – a community and a place that perhaps once had more pride in itself than it does today – that you know feels that mainstream politics has not been listening to it enough and I think that’s why someone like Andy is so popular in a place like Makerfield”.

Starmer may still put up a fight against being replaced in No 10 despite having lifted his previous objections to Burnham seeking to re-enter parliament after a disastrous week in. more than 80 of his MPs called for him to quit.

Steve Reed, one of his closest allies in the cabinet, conceded on Friday that the prime minister was unpopular,. insisted Labour should not repeat the same pattern of changing leaders that damaged the Conservatives.

Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary this week. stopped short of challenging Starmer, gave his backing to Burnham standing on Friday. “We need our best players on the pitch,” he said. “There is no doubt that Andy Burnham is one of them.”

It is still possible. he or other cabinet ministers could push for a full leadership contest rather than a Burnham coronation if he wins the byelection.

Burnham is expected to set out his vision of “Manchesterism” next week – a politics of making people feel rooted. invested in their local areas – and how it could apply to the whole country.

Analysis by Survation shared with the Guardian suggests that with Burnham as the candidate Labour would narrowly beat Reform by 45% to 43% in Makerfield. compared with another Labour candidate attracting 27% versus 53% for Reform.

The results were extrapolated using modelling from official election results, census data. survey data from the recent Gorton and Denton byelection.

In something of a blow to Labour. the Green party pledged on Friday to stand in the seat, a move criticised by the party’s former leader Caroline Lucas.

The contest has the potential to be a symbolic battle for the future of the country. with Nigel Farage’s Reform saying it will be fighting for the seat as hard as possible. The party’s HQ is expected to select its candidate. there is understood to be concern that it will face competition for votes from a candidate put forward by Rupert Lowe’s rightwing party Restore Britain.

Neal Lawson, a close adviser to Burnham, said he believed the Greater Manchester mayor had unique electoral appeal in that he “appeals to both Green voters. Reform voters, and no one else does it”.

“He’s always been confident about any byelection in the north-west,” he said. “I think he sees in the seat that he’s got an opportunity to take on Farage. take on the right – and win.

“This is a real change. It’s not cosmetic. This is deep political, democratic, economic, social change. I think he can win on that ticket. through his commitment to PR [proportional representation], to pluralism, to new politics, he can win over the Greens as well.”

Some MPs are extremely nervous about what could happen if Burnham were to lose the seat. expressed dismay that he had not engineered a potentially easier battle.

One Labour MP described Makerfield as the “absolute ground zero of red wall Reform anger”. argued that if the local election results were replicated Burnham as the candidate would need to take almost every vote off the Greens and Lib Dems as well as winning additional votes from Reform.