India, once the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, is expected to have little surplus for export for at least three more seasons asEl Niñoweather conditions threaten cane production. rising ethanol demand squeezes supply.
The twin pressures are poised to keep millions of tonnes of sugar off the world market, tightening supplies for importers across Asia, Africa. the Middle East and supporting benchmark prices in London and New York.
A prolonged absence by India from export markets would remove a key balancing supplier as weather risks. biofuel policies reshape global sugar trade flows.
Interviews with over a dozen trade. industry executives, government sources and farmers show that lower cane availability and rising ethanol demand will leave little for exports for several years, prompting dealers at global houses to warn head offices of shrinking opportunities in India, trade sources said.
Sugar is politically sensitive in global top consumer India, where sweets are highly popular. many poorer households rely on it as a cheap source of calories.
“Supplies are already tight in India,. now El Niño is emerging as a major risk,” said Rahil Shaikh, managing director of MEIR Commodities India, a Mumbai-based trader.
“If rains disappoint as forecast, cane planting will suffer. this will keep India out of the sugar export market for at least three years, while Brazil and Thailand could also see their crops affected by El Niño.”
Top exporter Brazil is also diverting more cane for ethanol. Thailand, another major exporter, could also have its output hit by El Niño-curtailed rains.
India exported 6.8 million metric tonnes of sugar annually on average in the five seasons through 2022-23 — about 10 per cent of global shipments. This year, after exporting around 800,000 tonnes, Indiabannedshipments until September 30, the end of the season.
Mills need government approval to export sugar,. New Delhi is likely to withhold export permissions each season rather than announce a multiyear ban, government and industry sources with knowledge of the matter said.
Last month, a top minister in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government told mills to prioritise domestic availability. not lobby for exports, the sources said on condition of anonymity because the discussions were confidential.
India’s Department of Food, Civil Supplies. Consumer Affairs did not respond to a request for comment on the prospects for exports or its restrictions on exports.
El Niño conditions are forecast toweakenIndia’s monsoon rains this year to their lowest in 11 years.
Below-average rains, coupled with June precipitation running more than 40pc below average, have prompted farmers to delay planting.
“I had planned to plant long-duration cane varieties in June,. since everyone is talking about lower rains, I decided to put that plan on hold,” said Sambhaji Patil, who decided to grow soybeans instead on 2 acres (0.8 hectares) in Sangli district of the western state of Maharashtra.
Nursery owner Suraj Chavan said demand for cane seedlings had fallen sharply in recent weeks.
Farmers are likely to switch to less water-intensive crops, which could drag down cane acreage. availability in the 2027-28 season, said Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories.
Local authorities have started promoting alternative crops such as soybeans, pigeon peas. other pulse varieties in most sugar-growing regions and have restricted water supplies for irrigation.
India was expected to produce 30.95m tonnes of sugar this season,. output is now forecast at 27.9m tonnes, below annual consumption of about 28.5m tonnes, according to industry estimates.
As a result. inventories with mills at the start of the season on October 1 are likely to fall to about 3.5m tonnes, the lowest in more than three decades, said MEIR’s Shaikh.
At the same time, India is pushing for higher ethanol blending with petrol. wider adoption of flex-fuel vehicles to cut dependence on expensive imported crude.
Ethanol demand could more than double to some 30bn litres (8bn gallons) by 2039-40 from the current 12bn to 13bn litres as higher ethanol blending in petrol. adoption of flex-fuel vehicles gather pace, industry estimates suggest.
“The trajectory for ethanol demand is incredibly strong,” said Samir Somaiya, chairman and managing director of Godavari Biorefineries. “The next phase of demand evolution will be driven by the commercial rollout of flex-fuel vehicles.”
Top Indian carmaker Maruti Suzuki this month launched the nation’s first flex-fuel passenger vehicle. while Hero MotoCorp launched a flex-fuel motorcycle.
India this month eliminated the production tax on petrol blended with higher levels of ethanol. launched fuel with up to 85pc ethanol to support the adoption of flex-fuel vehicles.
Future government policies will likely support ethanol production over sugar exports. said BB Thombare, managing director of Natural Sugar in Maharashtra state.
India could eventually be forced to import sugar if El Niño-related weather disruptions sharply cut cane cultivation area. output, the government sources and industry officials said, with traders warning that supplies could tighten further in the 2027-28 season.
India last imported sugar in 2016-17 and 2017-18 after an El Niño-induceddrought in 2015cut cane planting. In 2009 and 2010, India’s heavy purchases helped push global prices to nearly three times their previous levels.
“Because of a severe El Niño. rising demand for ethanol, not only would exports from India be wiped out, but imports into India in the coming years could also become necessary,” said Mohan Narang, director of KS Commodities, a trading house in New Delhi.
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