In a stark warning. Pavel – a retired Nato general – warns that “peace in Europe can no longer be treated as the default state of affairs.”
“ It must once again be actively protected, defended and maintained. The lesson of this moment is not. Europe is alone it is that Europe needs to be strong enough to stand on its own when needed.”
He warns that Europe needs to pull all the levers to get itself into the best position. as “history will simply not wait for Europe to become ready.”
“We must act swiftly,” he says.
Following Zelenskyy’s warnings yesterday. Ukraine is ramping up security measures in its regions bordering Belarus, AFP reported, after weeks of warning of a possible fresh attack from Russia’s chief regional ally.
Kyiv has sounded the alarm that Russia may use Belarus – a springboard for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine – to stage a new offensive from the north. including towards the capital.
AFP noted that Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said its units. the army were “carrying out a comprehensive set of enhanced security measures in the northern regions of our country”.
The measures – including stepped up checks. controls of individuals and properties – “will serve as an effective deterrent to any aggressive actions or operations by the enemy and its ally”, the SBU said in a statement.
Just a reminder that Russia. Belarus are also staging joint nuclear drills this week, involving thousands of troops, planes and strategic missile forces.
For what it’s worth. Poland’s defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said this morning Ukraine must be very precise when using drones to avoid Russia interfering with their flight path.
“ Ukraine must be more precise here. of course, to avoid giving rise to Russian provocations,” Kosiniak-Kamysz told a news conference in the Estonian capital Tallinn, Reuters reported.
“Our territories … should not be violated, they should not be threatened.”
Earlier this week. Ukraine apologised for individual cases when its drones attacking targets in Russia strayed into the Baltic airspace, blaming Moscow’s “electronic warfare.”
But Nato’s secretary general Mark Rutte laid the blame squarely on Russia, saying bluntly yesterday ( Europe Live, Wednesday ):
“ If drones come from Ukraine. they are not there because Ukraine wanted to send a drone to Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia. They are there because of the reckless. illegal, full-scale attack of Russia, starting in 2022 after, of course, what they did in Crimea in 2014 against Ukraine.”
And just like that. Latvia’s army has just issued a possible drone alert over southeastern part of the country – for the third day in a row.
I will keep an eye on that as there are more questions than answers at this early stage. including the crucial one on where does the it come from and, well, whose is it as we have seen reports of stray Ukrainian drones crossing into the Baltic countries as a result of Russian jamming.
Just as Pavel was speaking in Prague. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told reporters that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was pursuing escalation of the conflict between the two countries.
It’s quite a claim given (checks notes) Russia’s continued and relentless invasion of Ukraine for years.
But it fits a pattern of Russia’s increasingly assertive or outright aggressive language towards others in the region – first the Baltics,. Latvia in particular, and now Ukraine.
In fact. Zelenskyy specifically warned last night about the prospect of Russia expanding its aggression, particularly from the direction of Belarus.
“ Ukraine will certainly defend itself,. right now our task is to strengthen our state so that none of Russia’s five scenarios for expanding the war through northern Ukraine succeeds,” he said.
Pavel also warns against Europe losing out through “bureaucratic obstacles.”
He points to Ukraine’s ability to innovate. live test new solutions, such as drones, within days, going through procurement and production to an accelerated timeline.
“ Ukraine has demonstrated not only determination and heroism, but also unbelievable capacity to adjust, to innovate, to change.
It is something that we in Europe have lost through many regulatory measures that are necessary in peacetime, but of course in conflict you have to be … flexible. achieve the results in shortest possible time. …
I visited Ukraine a number of times, and also companies producing drones. They are producing them in a vast variety of versions, sending them straight to the frontline, testing in days,. having feedback in companies again in days. So the pace goes well beyond what we can achieve in peacetime. …
If we want to succeed in any potential future conflict. we have to have the procedures that will be much faster than that we have today, because otherwise we will be losing the conflict on bureaucratic obstacles.”
He compares it to Europe “having all the ingredients for a great meal, but we still don’t have a recipe.”
And that ends his session.
In a short Q&A, Pavel gets asked about the role of AI and technology more broadly.
He says it is “beyond any doubt that technology will be the weapon of the future,” as he points out to Russia’s Putin. China’s Xi focusing on this issue during their talks in China this week.
“I think we have to take it seriously, because mainly China is our is doing tremendous progress in this,. experience from both Ukraine and the Middle East shows that technological superiority can be a true game changer.”
In a stark warning. Pavel – a retired Nato general – warns that “peace in Europe can no longer be treated as the default state of affairs.”
“ It must once again be actively protected, defended and maintained. The lesson of this moment is not. Europe is alone it is that Europe needs to be strong enough to stand on its own when needed.”
He warns that Europe needs to pull all the levers to get itself into the best position. as “history will simply not wait for Europe to become ready.”
“We must act swiftly,” he says.
Pavel turns to Ukraine, stressing that “supporting Ukraine is not a charity,” but “a direct investment in Europe’s own security.”
“ If Ukraine is forced into a bad peace, we all will live with the consequences for decades,” he warns.
Pavel also stresses the need to bring the EU. Nato closer, as Brussels “has instruments that Nato does not have: funding, infrastructure, and industrial policies” that can work as policy tools to help with defence preparations.
“I am convinced that these two sets of instruments should be connected. Nato and European Union are not competitors in European security. They should function as complementary pillars.”
He gives a specific example of Nato working with the EU to modernise “routes, ports, bridges. airfields” that are critical for moving forces across Europe.
“ The task is to make sure that the two plans overlap; that Nato’s military requirements guide EU investments,. the EU investments strengthen Nato deterrence.”
He pointedly says that such plans should include Canada, Norway, and the UK, as “indispensable European security actors.”
Pavel says that Europe “has already made significant progress in defence spending,”. warns that “credible defence is not built on spending levels alone.”
“We need to work hard to strengthen our strategic enablers. close critical gaps in areas such as strategic airlift, air and missile defence, intelligence, logistics, or military mobility. There is no time to lose. ”
Pavel begins by saying that his repeated warnings that Europe needs to focus on its political will, industrial capacity. technological capacity “remain fully valid; if anything, it has become even more urgent today.”
He says it is clear that Europe “must assume greater responsibility for our own defence, not because we are told so by Washington, but because it is in our own strategic. vital interest.”
He says that as “debates about the future scale of America’s conventional military presence in Europe are becoming more pronounced. Europe must be prepared for this reality.”
“This doesn’t mean that Europe should turn away from the United States – just the opposite. Nato remains the foundation of our collective defence,. the transatlantic bond remains essential for our own security – but we must be honest [that] many assumptions supporting the old security architecture are no longer valid. ”
The Globsec Forum in Prague is now under way.
Czechia’s Pavel is on stage for his opening address.
I will bring you the key lines.
Dobré ráno, or good morning from Prague.
Over 2,000 state officials, foreign policy. security experts from Europe and beyond are meeting in the Czech capital for the GLOBSEC Forum 2026. And there is no shortage of issues to cover.
From the latest drone incidents in the Baltics to broader security situation in Ukraine. Europe – and this part of Europe in particular – to broader global questions on energy, geopolitics, AI, and the state of the transatlantic alliance, there will be plenty of things to cover.
We will hear from the Czech president, Petr Pavel, the European Commission’s vice-president, Henna Virkunen,. the former Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, among others just as Nato’s foreign ministers gather in Sweden for their ministerial meeting today and tomorrow.
Last night, Pavel warned that Russia will continue to be Europe’s main security threat for decades, as the continent wakes up from being overreliant on US protection. needs to radically bolster its own defence as a new global order of competing superpowers takes shape.
I will bring you all the key lines here.
Elsewhere, I will bring you the latest on Ukraine, the said drone incidents in the Baltics,. all other relevant news from across the continent.
It’s Thursday, 21 May 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
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